Stu Furay's UFC on Fuel TV 4 Betting Blog
The fights keep on coming this Thursday with UFC on FUEL TV and surprisingly, Paddy Power has listed every fight on this card to bet on. I will first cover the main card fights in a little depth, and then quickly list who I will think will win in the prelims. Unfortunately there are a lot of lopsided fights with heavy favourites so not a lot of value to be found.
Dos Anjos vs Njokuani
Classic grappler versus striker in this one, as Dos Anjos BJJ goes up against Njokuani's Muay Thai. Although Njokuani shows a lot of promise, he hasn't really lit the UFC on fire since coming over from WEC, and I think Dos Anjos experience will take this one by submission (1/2 for the win).
Dillashaw vs Lee
It's youth versus experience in this one as TUF finalist TJ Dillashaw (6-1), takes on Brit Vaughan Lee (12-7). Although Lee is coming off the back of a great submission victory over Norifumi Yamamoto, I would expect Dillashaw to smother him with his superior wrestling skills and take the decision. Dillashaw is the massive favourite @ 1/5, so not worth touching, but if you fancy a risk, there's a chance Lee could catch him with a submission and is 3/1 for the win.
Vemola vs Carmont
London Shootfighters based Vemola (10-2) is coming off the back of a submission victory (RNC) over Mike Massenzio, but will really have his hands full against the impressive Francis Carmont. Vemola is explosive and savage enough to finish the fight early by GnP if he gets top position, but I expect Carmont to have too much in his locker and take the win @ 4/9.
Simpson vs Robertson
Simpson (10-3) is a massive favourite here @ 3/10, and rightly so as his world class wrestling will be too much for Kenny Robertson (11-1). Not worth touching.
Te Huna vs Beltran
Te Huna clear favourite again in this one @ 2/7, and although Beltran can take huge amounts of punishment, I would expect Te Huna to finish this one early by GnP. Not even worth a hopeful punt on Beltran @ 9/4.
Munoz vs Weidman
Munoz (12-2) has won his last four fights and seven of the last eight, whereas Weidman (8-0) has yet to taste defeat. Both these guys are wrestlers, with Munoz having savage ground and pound in his arsenal and Weidman being the better all round fighter having wins by Submission, TKO and decision. This is a close one to call and if Munoz gets top position early we could see a quick and savage end to the fight, but I think Weidman's athleticism and superior wrestling will see him home to a points victory. Paddy Power offer 8/11 for the Weidman win and 13/10 to win on points, which is what I think is your best bet.
Assuncao vs Tamura: Assuncao 4/9
Guimaraes vs Stittgen: Guimaraes 1/4
Natal vs Craig: Natal 5/4
Cariaso vs Ferguson: Cariaso 3/10
Page vs Caceres: Page 8/15
* = Feeling lucky?
* Vaughan Lee @ 3/1
Photo by Renee-Lea Thackham (Combat Athletics Academy)
Published by Steve Wickett - Wed, 11 Jul 2012 20:51